Official National Weather Service observations at San Francisco International Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 51°F on October 13, 2026, shortly after 6 AM local time under clear skies and light winds, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 50-51°F outcome at 96% implied probability. METAR data from KSFO showed overnight lows bottoming in that narrow range after a mild evening, consistent with seasonal norms near 55°F and recent model guidance indicating limited marine layer influence or radiative cooling. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders' confidence in verified station data over broader forecasts. Resolution could shift only if the market specifies a non-airport site with materially different microclimate readings or if official revisions alter the recorded minimum, though such adjustments remain unlikely given the consistent hourly reports.