Recent National Weather Service and European model guidance converges on a Tuesday night low near 50–52°F for Seattle, driven by clear skies under a flattening upper ridge, light northerly flow, and modest radiational cooling after daytime highs of 64–66°F. This places the expected minimum several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 48.8°F for October 6 while remaining well below the 64°F threshold. With no significant frontal systems or marine intrusions forecast before dawn Wednesday, model spread is narrow, supporting trader focus on the mid-50s bins even as the market assigns comparable implied probability to the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher tails. Updated evening model runs and official NWS gridded forecasts tonight will provide the final data points before resolution.