Forecast models and real-time observations for Incheon and Seoul on October 15, 2026, show a minimum temperature of 16°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate southwest winds, aligning closely with historical October averages and supporting the 97.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Official guidance from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration and consistent runs from sources such as Weather Underground and Open-Meteo project overnight lows stabilizing near this level without significant further cooling. Trader consensus reflects this strong data alignment, as skin-in-the-game positioning favors the forecast consensus over outliers. A realistic challenge could arise from localized clearer skies accelerating radiative cooling or station-specific measurement variations pushing the recorded low to 15°C or 17°C.