Current forecast models, including GFS runs and hourly guidance from sources like Yr and Globalmeteo, indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Warsaw on October 1, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly winds, and high pressure near 1033 hPa that favors moderate radiative cooling overnight. Daytime highs around 18–20°C and dew points near 7–8°C support this range, consistent with early-October climatology where overnight lows typically fall between 8–12°C. Recent model consensus and ongoing observations have reinforced probabilities around 10°C while limiting support for colder outcomes below 8°C, though slight variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the final reading by 1–2°C before resolution.