Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNC-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NC-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$19,035 Vol.
$19,035 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
86%
Parti démocrate
14%
$19,035 Vol.
$19,035 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$14,276 Vol.
86%
Parti démocrate
$4,758 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,035Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,035Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election. The district's conservative tilt, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Republicans and Donald Trump's estimated 14-point margin under the October 2025 redrawn map, anchors trader pricing near 85% for the GOP. Murphy's substantial fundraising lead, unopposed primary path, and history of strong general election performance further support the implied probability. Democratic efforts remain limited by the absence of a high-profile challenger and the seat's structural barriers, consistent with ratings from Cook Political Report and similar forecasters classifying it as Solid or Likely Republican. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics have emerged since the March primaries to alter the consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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