Claudia Tenney, the Republican incumbent, holds a strong position in New York’s 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election against Democrat Alissa Ellman. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican based on the district’s consistent partisan lean of roughly R+20 to R+23 and Tenney’s prior performance, including a 31-point margin in 2024. With no public polls released in the final weeks, trader consensus on the margin of victory centers on Republican wins in the 15-25 point range, reflecting the district’s fundamentals and limited Democratic momentum in upstate New York. The low implied probability for a Democratic victory underscores structural barriers, while uncertainty over turnout and any last-minute national shifts keeps the precise margin buckets competitive among traders.