Trader consensus prices "No" at 92% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ investigation targeting the former president personally. Recent partisan rhetoric, including President Trump's April social media accusations of treason tied to alleged Russia collusion hoax involvement and DNI Tulsi Gabbard's declassifications implicating Obama-era officials like James Comey, has fueled online rumors but prompted no official actions such as arrest warrants or court filings. DOJ probes have focused on subordinates, including interviews with ex-CIA personnel and Comey's indictment, while Obama publicly urged Justice Department independence in a May 6 interview. Legal barriers, including statutes of limitations and precedents against prosecuting ex-presidents without ironclad evidence, underpin the low implied probability, though late-breaking indictments could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ investigation targeting the former president personally. Recent partisan rhetoric, including President Trump's April social media accusations of treason tied to alleged Russia collusion hoax involvement and DNI Tulsi Gabbard's declassifications implicating Obama-era officials like James Comey, has fueled online rumors but prompted no official actions such as arrest warrants or court filings. DOJ probes have focused on subordinates, including interviews with ex-CIA personnel and Comey's indictment, while Obama publicly urged Justice Department independence in a May 6 interview. Legal barriers, including statutes of limitations and precedents against prosecuting ex-presidents without ironclad evidence, underpin the low implied probability, though late-breaking indictments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$7,481Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ investigation targeting the former president personally. Recent partisan rhetoric, including President Trump's April social media accusations of treason tied to alleged Russia collusion hoax involvement and DNI Tulsi Gabbard's declassifications implicating Obama-era officials like James Comey, has fueled online rumors but prompted no official actions such as arrest warrants or court filings. DOJ probes have focused on subordinates, including interviews with ex-CIA personnel and Comey's indictment, while Obama publicly urged Justice Department independence in a May 6 interview. Legal barriers, including statutes of limitations and precedents against prosecuting ex-presidents without ironclad evidence, underpin the low implied probability, though late-breaking indictments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,481Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the complete absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ investigation targeting the former president personally. Recent partisan rhetoric, including President Trump's April social media accusations of treason tied to alleged Russia collusion hoax involvement and DNI Tulsi Gabbard's declassifications implicating Obama-era officials like James Comey, has fueled online rumors but prompted no official actions such as arrest warrants or court filings. DOJ probes have focused on subordinates, including interviews with ex-CIA personnel and Comey's indictment, while Obama publicly urged Justice Department independence in a May 6 interview. Legal barriers, including statutes of limitations and precedents against prosecuting ex-presidents without ironclad evidence, underpin the low implied probability, though late-breaking indictments could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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