OpenAI’s continued lack of any official AGI claim or verified demonstration through mid-2026 underpins the 91% market-implied odds against an announcement before 2027. Recent internal and external timeline revisions—such as former researcher Daniel Kokotajlo shifting autonomous coding and superintelligence forecasts into the early 2030s—reflect slower-than-expected gains in reliable, general reasoning despite iterative releases like the o-series models and GPT-5 variants. OpenAI’s own 2025–2026 updates emphasize deployment gaps, small scientific discoveries in 2026, and larger ones later, alongside a Microsoft agreement requiring independent panel verification before any AGI declaration. While a sudden capability leap or shifted internal definition could still trigger an announcement, the combination of benchmark realities, compute scaling limits, and deliberate safety-focused pacing sustains strong trader consensus on “No.”