OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 68%
1.5T+ 8.5%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 milliards de dollars 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
1%
500–750 milliards de dollars
3%
750B–1T
2%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
3%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1.5T+
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
68%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 68%
1.5T+ 8.5%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 milliards de dollars 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750 milliards de dollars
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
$182,625 Vol.
3%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1.5T+
$101,032 Vol.
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
$305,147 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,863Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,863Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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