Persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions and stalled peace talks represent the primary barrier to a Putin visit to the United States by December 31, 2026, sustaining trader consensus around a 91% probability against it. The Trump administration invited Putin to the December G20 summit in Miami, which the Kremlin said it would consider through diplomatic channels, yet no acceptance has followed amid ongoing sanctions, battlefield developments, and unresolved territorial disputes. Prior engagement, including the August 2025 Anchorage summit, has not produced a durable agreement or normalized relations sufficient to overcome legal, political, and security obstacles. Recent envoy visits and leader calls have focused on Ukraine without clearing these hurdles.