SpaceX’s post-IPO equity price action since the June 2026 listing at $135 per share (initial ~$1.77T valuation) remains the dominant driver of end-August 2026 market-cap odds, with the shares recently trading near $114–116 and producing a roughly $1.4T capitalization amid elevated volatility. Revenue growth from Starlink subscriptions, Starship development milestones, and broader risk appetite for high-growth space and AI-adjacent names continue to influence multiples, yet wide analyst dispersion—ranging from sub-$70 fair-value estimates to far higher targets—reflects uncertainty over 2026 cash-flow projections relative to the company’s ~$19B 2025 revenue base. With outcomes from under $1T through above $2.25T all clustered near 47–48% implied probability, traders appear balanced between near-term downside pressure from lock-up expirations and profit-taking versus upside from launch cadence or sector rotation, leaving resolution highly sensitive to the next several weeks of trading volume and any incremental operational updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$1.00-$1.25T 49%
$2.00-$2.25T 49%
<$1.00T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<$1.00T
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
49%
$1.25-$1.50T
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
48%
$2.00-$2.25T
49%
$2.25T+
48%
$1.00-$1.25T 49%
$2.00-$2.25T 49%
<$1.00T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
49%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
49%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX’s post-IPO equity price action since the June 2026 listing at $135 per share (initial ~$1.77T valuation) remains the dominant driver of end-August 2026 market-cap odds, with the shares recently trading near $114–116 and producing a roughly $1.4T capitalization amid elevated volatility. Revenue growth from Starlink subscriptions, Starship development milestones, and broader risk appetite for high-growth space and AI-adjacent names continue to influence multiples, yet wide analyst dispersion—ranging from sub-$70 fair-value estimates to far higher targets—reflects uncertainty over 2026 cash-flow projections relative to the company’s ~$19B 2025 revenue base. With outcomes from under $1T through above $2.25T all clustered near 47–48% implied probability, traders appear balanced between near-term downside pressure from lock-up expirations and profit-taking versus upside from launch cadence or sector rotation, leaving resolution highly sensitive to the next several weeks of trading volume and any incremental operational updates.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX’s post-IPO equity price action since the June 2026 listing at $135 per share (initial ~$1.77T valuation) remains the dominant driver of end-August 2026 market-cap odds, with the shares recently trading near $114–116 and producing a roughly $1.4T capitalization amid elevated volatility. Revenue growth from Starlink subscriptions, Starship development milestones, and broader risk appetite for high-growth space and AI-adjacent names continue to influence multiples, yet wide analyst dispersion—ranging from sub-$70 fair-value estimates to far higher targets—reflects uncertainty over 2026 cash-flow projections relative to the company’s ~$19B 2025 revenue base. With outcomes from under $1T through above $2.25T all clustered near 47–48% implied probability, traders appear balanced between near-term downside pressure from lock-up expirations and profit-taking versus upside from launch cadence or sector rotation, leaving resolution highly sensitive to the next several weeks of trading volume and any incremental operational updates.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX’s post-IPO equity price action since the June 2026 listing at $135 per share (initial ~$1.77T valuation) remains the dominant driver of end-August 2026 market-cap odds, with the shares recently trading near $114–116 and producing a roughly $1.4T capitalization amid elevated volatility. Revenue growth from Starlink subscriptions, Starship development milestones, and broader risk appetite for high-growth space and AI-adjacent names continue to influence multiples, yet wide analyst dispersion—ranging from sub-$70 fair-value estimates to far higher targets—reflects uncertainty over 2026 cash-flow projections relative to the company’s ~$19B 2025 revenue base. With outcomes from under $1T through above $2.25T all clustered near 47–48% implied probability, traders appear balanced between near-term downside pressure from lock-up expirations and profit-taking versus upside from launch cadence or sector rotation, leaving resolution highly sensitive to the next several weeks of trading volume and any incremental operational updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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