Marsha Blackburn's victory in the August 6 Republican primary over John Rose and Monty Fritts has consolidated GOP support behind the U.S. senator for the November 3 general election against Democrat Jerri Green. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in recent presidential results and open-seat dynamics after term-limited Governor Bill Lee, underpins trader pricing that favors a Republican margin in the low-to-mid teens. Limited general-election polling shows Blackburn ahead by roughly 20 points, but the distribution of probabilities across margin brackets signals uncertainty over turnout patterns, rural mobilization, and any late shifts in suburban or independent support. No major scandals, endorsements, or policy developments have emerged in the past week to widen or narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMarge de victoire de l'élection du gouverneur du Tennessee
Marge de victoire de l'élection du gouverneur du Tennessee
Républicain 35-40 % 44%
Républicain 25-30 % 11%
Républicain 20-25 % 11%
Républicain 30-35 % 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 40 %+
41%
Républicain 35-40 %
44%
Républicain 30-35 %
10%
Républicain 25-30 %
11%
Républicain 20-25 %
11%
Républicain 15-20 %
6%
Républicain 10-15 %
41%
Républicain 5-10 %
4%
Républicain 0-5 %
10%
Victoire du démocrate
5%
Républicain 35-40 % 44%
Républicain 25-30 % 11%
Républicain 20-25 % 11%
Républicain 30-35 % 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 40 %+
$97 Vol.
41%
Républicain 35-40 %
$50 Vol.
44%
Républicain 30-35 %
$50 Vol.
10%
Républicain 25-30 %
$50 Vol.
11%
Républicain 20-25 %
$50 Vol.
11%
Républicain 15-20 %
$50 Vol.
6%
Républicain 10-15 %
$111 Vol.
41%
Républicain 5-10 %
$50 Vol.
4%
Républicain 0-5 %
$70 Vol.
10%
Victoire du démocrate
$50 Vol.
5%
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marsha Blackburn's victory in the August 6 Republican primary over John Rose and Monty Fritts has consolidated GOP support behind the U.S. senator for the November 3 general election against Democrat Jerri Green. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in recent presidential results and open-seat dynamics after term-limited Governor Bill Lee, underpins trader pricing that favors a Republican margin in the low-to-mid teens. Limited general-election polling shows Blackburn ahead by roughly 20 points, but the distribution of probabilities across margin brackets signals uncertainty over turnout patterns, rural mobilization, and any late shifts in suburban or independent support. No major scandals, endorsements, or policy developments have emerged in the past week to widen or narrow the gap.
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Volume
$629Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marsha Blackburn's victory in the August 6 Republican primary over John Rose and Monty Fritts has consolidated GOP support behind the U.S. senator for the November 3 general election against Democrat Jerri Green. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in recent presidential results and open-seat dynamics after term-limited Governor Bill Lee, underpins trader pricing that favors a Republican margin in the low-to-mid teens. Limited general-election polling shows Blackburn ahead by roughly 20 points, but the distribution of probabilities across margin brackets signals uncertainty over turnout patterns, rural mobilization, and any late shifts in suburban or independent support. No major scandals, endorsements, or policy developments have emerged in the past week to widen or narrow the gap.
The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$629Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marsha Blackburn's victory in the August 6 Republican primary over John Rose and Monty Fritts has consolidated GOP support behind the U.S. senator for the November 3 general election against Democrat Jerri Green. Tennessee's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in recent presidential results and open-seat dynamics after term-limited Governor Bill Lee, underpins trader pricing that favors a Republican margin in the low-to-mid teens. Limited general-election polling shows Blackburn ahead by roughly 20 points, but the distribution of probabilities across margin brackets signals uncertainty over turnout patterns, rural mobilization, and any late shifts in suburban or independent support. No major scandals, endorsements, or policy developments have emerged in the past week to widen or narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale du Tennessee en 2026 avec 40 %-45 % ?
38%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur de l'Arkansas en 2026 avec une avance de 0 % à 5 % ?
41%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain gagnera-t-il l'élection du gouverneur de Floride en 2026 avec une avance de 6 % à 9 % ?
42%
Oui
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