The strong trader consensus against Trump leaving office before 2027 stems from the lack of viable constitutional pathways materializing in the near term. Recent House action tabling Democratic impeachment articles over immigration enforcement, combined with routine medical updates confirming chronic but non-incapacitating conditions such as venous insufficiency, has kept removal mechanisms dormant. Invocation of the 25th Amendment or Senate conviction requires broad bipartisan thresholds that current congressional dynamics and approval trends have not approached. Approaching 2026 midterms and ongoing foreign policy developments, including Iran-related tensions, have not produced acute crises capable of shifting these probabilities within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$11,823,908 Vol.
$11,823,908 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$11,823,908 Vol.
$11,823,908 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The strong trader consensus against Trump leaving office before 2027 stems from the lack of viable constitutional pathways materializing in the near term. Recent House action tabling Democratic impeachment articles over immigration enforcement, combined with routine medical updates confirming chronic but non-incapacitating conditions such as venous insufficiency, has kept removal mechanisms dormant. Invocation of the 25th Amendment or Senate conviction requires broad bipartisan thresholds that current congressional dynamics and approval trends have not approached. Approaching 2026 midterms and ongoing foreign policy developments, including Iran-related tensions, have not produced acute crises capable of shifting these probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,823,908Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The strong trader consensus against Trump leaving office before 2027 stems from the lack of viable constitutional pathways materializing in the near term. Recent House action tabling Democratic impeachment articles over immigration enforcement, combined with routine medical updates confirming chronic but non-incapacitating conditions such as venous insufficiency, has kept removal mechanisms dormant. Invocation of the 25th Amendment or Senate conviction requires broad bipartisan thresholds that current congressional dynamics and approval trends have not approached. Approaching 2026 midterms and ongoing foreign policy developments, including Iran-related tensions, have not produced acute crises capable of shifting these probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,823,908Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus against Trump leaving office before 2027 stems from the lack of viable constitutional pathways materializing in the near term. Recent House action tabling Democratic impeachment articles over immigration enforcement, combined with routine medical updates confirming chronic but non-incapacitating conditions such as venous insufficiency, has kept removal mechanisms dormant. Invocation of the 25th Amendment or Senate conviction requires broad bipartisan thresholds that current congressional dynamics and approval trends have not approached. Approaching 2026 midterms and ongoing foreign policy developments, including Iran-related tensions, have not produced acute crises capable of shifting these probabilities within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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