President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ruling AKP has advanced preliminary work through an internal constitutional commission that has held multiple meetings and is preparing proposals for a civilian charter to replace the 1982 document. Recent statements from Erdoğan and party officials in May 2026 have reiterated the effort as a priority for removing coup-era provisions. However, any new constitution would require either a two-thirds parliamentary majority or a successful referendum, both of which face significant hurdles given opposition parties' reluctance and the absence of a broad cross-party agreement. These structural and political constraints explain why traders assign a high probability against meaningful progress occurring before the end of 2026.