Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 34th congressional district, a South Texas seat rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters. The race remains closely contested because limited public polling and Republican internal surveys show margins of just 1-3 points, reflecting shifts in voter priorities among Latino communities in the Rio Grande Valley along with redistricting changes and the broader midterm environment. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Flores defeating multiple challengers and Gonzalez winning his nomination. Factors sustaining the tightness include low name recognition for the nine-year incumbent in some surveys and competing emphases on border security, economic opportunity, and party affiliation. Potential separators include upcoming debates, national polling trends, candidate endorsements, or late developments in turnout and issue salience that could widen the gap before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 12 %+ 37%
Républicain 9-12% 37%
Républicain 6-9 % 37%
Républicain 3-6 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 12 %+
37%
Républicain 9-12%
37%
Républicain 6-9 %
37%
Républicain 3-6 %
37%
Républicain 0-3 %
37%
Démocrate 0-3 %
37%
Démocrate 3-6 %
37%
Démocrate 6-9 %
37%
Démocrate 9-12 %
37%
Démocrate 12 %+
37%
Républicain 12 %+ 37%
Républicain 9-12% 37%
Républicain 6-9 % 37%
Républicain 3-6 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 12 %+
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 9-12%
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 6-9 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 3-6 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 0-3 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 0-3 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 3-6 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 6-9 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 9-12 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 12 %+
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 TX-34 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 34th congressional district, a South Texas seat rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters. The race remains closely contested because limited public polling and Republican internal surveys show margins of just 1-3 points, reflecting shifts in voter priorities among Latino communities in the Rio Grande Valley along with redistricting changes and the broader midterm environment. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Flores defeating multiple challengers and Gonzalez winning his nomination. Factors sustaining the tightness include low name recognition for the nine-year incumbent in some surveys and competing emphases on border security, economic opportunity, and party affiliation. Potential separators include upcoming debates, national polling trends, candidate endorsements, or late developments in turnout and issue salience that could widen the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 TX-34 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 TX-34 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 34th congressional district, a South Texas seat rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters. The race remains closely contested because limited public polling and Republican internal surveys show margins of just 1-3 points, reflecting shifts in voter priorities among Latino communities in the Rio Grande Valley along with redistricting changes and the broader midterm environment. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Flores defeating multiple challengers and Gonzalez winning his nomination. Factors sustaining the tightness include low name recognition for the nine-year incumbent in some surveys and competing emphases on border security, economic opportunity, and party affiliation. Potential separators include upcoming debates, national polling trends, candidate endorsements, or late developments in turnout and issue salience that could widen the gap before Election Day.
The 2026 TX-34 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-34 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores in the November 2026 general election for Texas's 34th congressional district, a South Texas seat rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters. The race remains closely contested because limited public polling and Republican internal surveys show margins of just 1-3 points, reflecting shifts in voter priorities among Latino communities in the Rio Grande Valley along with redistricting changes and the broader midterm environment. Primaries concluded in March 2026 with Flores defeating multiple challengers and Gonzalez winning his nomination. Factors sustaining the tightness include low name recognition for the nine-year incumbent in some surveys and competing emphases on border security, economic opportunity, and party affiliation. Potential separators include upcoming debates, national polling trends, candidate endorsements, or late developments in turnout and issue salience that could widen the gap before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre TX-33 de 2026 avec 60 % ou plus ?
37%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre TX-32 de 2026 avec 21 % d'avance ou plus ?
37%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 10%-15%?
38%
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