**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTornades américaines de septembre 2026
Tornades américaines de septembre 2026
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
Moins de 25 42%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
42%
25 - 49
46%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
47%
125 ou plus
21%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
Moins de 25 42%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
$0 Vol.
42%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
46%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
52%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
47%
125 ou plus
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 centers on near-average activity, with the 50-74 bin holding a narrow edge at 51.5% implied probability over 75-124 at 46.5%.** Historical data place the long-term September mean near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020 average), with high year-to-year variability driven by the transition from summer to fall patterns. Key differentiating factors include the position and strength of the subtropical jet, Gulf moisture influx, and low-level shear, which favor isolated supercells or clusters mainly across the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño phases have historically enhanced a secondary fall peak by shifting steering patterns and instability, while neutral or La Niña conditions can suppress it. Tropical cyclone remnants, such as potential Gulf systems near Labor Day, add localized tornado risk through enhanced shear and moisture, though overall activity remains lower than spring peaks. The close odds reflect genuine uncertainty in model consensus on steering patterns and the limited predictability of discrete fall outbreaks versus climatological baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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