The U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his ongoing detention on narcotics charges have not disrupted institutional continuity, with Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice classifying the situation as a temporary absence and recognizing him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting president. This framework, backed by the National Assembly and military, sustains Chavista structures amid amnesty legislation, prisoner releases, and U.S. diplomatic reengagement focused on oil sector cooperation and sanctions relief. No presidential election has been scheduled by the National Electoral Council, leaving opposition figures such as María Corina Machado limited leverage despite exile-based advocacy. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and power-retention factors, assigning Maduro the highest probability of remaining head of state through year-end while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative should a transition accelerate before December 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLeader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Leader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Nicolás Maduro 64.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 21%
María Corina Machado 7%
Jorge Rodríguez 1.1%
$88,270,467 Vol.
$88,270,467 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Nicolás Maduro
64%
Delcy Rodríguez
21%
María Corina Machado
7%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 64.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 21%
María Corina Machado 7%
Jorge Rodríguez 1.1%
$88,270,467 Vol.
$88,270,467 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,706,096 Vol.
64%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,597,675 Vol.
21%
María Corina Machado
$1,056,773 Vol.
7%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,003,219 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,685,284 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$827,828 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$913,215 Vol.
1%
Pas de chef d'État
$1,078,011 Vol.
1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,339,330 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$666,521 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,165,407 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,572,849 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$981,562 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,600,801 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,057,046 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,018,860 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his ongoing detention on narcotics charges have not disrupted institutional continuity, with Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice classifying the situation as a temporary absence and recognizing him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting president. This framework, backed by the National Assembly and military, sustains Chavista structures amid amnesty legislation, prisoner releases, and U.S. diplomatic reengagement focused on oil sector cooperation and sanctions relief. No presidential election has been scheduled by the National Electoral Council, leaving opposition figures such as María Corina Machado limited leverage despite exile-based advocacy. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and power-retention factors, assigning Maduro the highest probability of remaining head of state through year-end while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative should a transition accelerate before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$88,270,467Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his ongoing detention on narcotics charges have not disrupted institutional continuity, with Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice classifying the situation as a temporary absence and recognizing him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting president. This framework, backed by the National Assembly and military, sustains Chavista structures amid amnesty legislation, prisoner releases, and U.S. diplomatic reengagement focused on oil sector cooperation and sanctions relief. No presidential election has been scheduled by the National Electoral Council, leaving opposition figures such as María Corina Machado limited leverage despite exile-based advocacy. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and power-retention factors, assigning Maduro the highest probability of remaining head of state through year-end while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative should a transition accelerate before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$88,270,467Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his ongoing detention on narcotics charges have not disrupted institutional continuity, with Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice classifying the situation as a temporary absence and recognizing him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting president. This framework, backed by the National Assembly and military, sustains Chavista structures amid amnesty legislation, prisoner releases, and U.S. diplomatic reengagement focused on oil sector cooperation and sanctions relief. No presidential election has been scheduled by the National Electoral Council, leaving opposition figures such as María Corina Machado limited leverage despite exile-based advocacy. Trader consensus reflects these procedural and power-retention factors, assigning Maduro the highest probability of remaining head of state through year-end while positioning Rodríguez as the primary alternative should a transition accelerate before December 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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