Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a commanding lead in the WA-03 race following November 3 election night results that showed her ahead by roughly 11 points, or about 28,000 votes, with 55% to John Braun’s 44%. The Associated Press called the contest for the Democratic incumbent on November 4. Washington’s all-mail ballot system and ongoing counts in Clark County and other areas have not narrowed the margin enough to alter the outcome. Perez’s strength as a moderate incumbent who flipped the seat in 2022, combined with national Democratic gains in the House, drove trader consensus toward near-certainty. A reversal remains possible only in the event of an extraordinarily large and one-sided late ballot surge or successful legal challenge during certification, both of which appear highly improbable given the current vote differential.