Walmart's U.S. eCommerce sales expanded 26% in fiscal Q2 2026, landing squarely in the 25%-29% band that commands 56.5% market-implied probability. This outcome reflects sustained momentum in omnichannel execution, with store-fulfilled delivery surging nearly 50% and accounting for the majority of incremental growth alongside rising advertising revenue and marketplace commissions. Comparable sales rose 4.6%, supported by higher transaction counts and average ticket values, while eCommerce contributed roughly 420 basis points to the result. Traders appear to have priced in continuity from prior quarters of 20%-plus digital expansion, tempered by the inherent variability in seasonal demand and fulfillment economics. Upcoming Q3 guidance and any revisions to full-year net sales forecasts between 3.75% and 4.75% will likely influence whether probabilities shift toward adjacent ranges.