Ongoing US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have become the dominant factor shaping assessments of Russian territorial gains through 2027, with negotiators addressing security guarantees, European involvement, and Donbas borders while Russia maintains demands for additional Donetsk territory. Ground operations remain largely static as of mid-November 2026, with neither side reporting significant advances and Russian forces focusing incremental pressure near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have reduced Russian oil-refining capacity by roughly 30 percent, constraining logistics, while both sides continue targeting energy and transport infrastructure. Scheduled follow-up negotiations and any resulting ceasefire or security arrangements could limit further Russian entries into Ukrainian cities before the 2027 deadline.