Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases in mid-2026 that have posted leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench Coding and related agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified. These models demonstrate sustained advantages in long-context code generation, debugging, and tool-use tasks that align closely with LiveBench’s refreshed, contamination-free evaluation. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol, released in July, trails at 29% despite strong SWE-bench results, reflecting a narrower perceived edge on LiveBench’s specific task mix. Lower-odds contenders including Google, Meta, and open-weight labs trail due to fewer recent competitive updates. The next two months of potential model iterations before the October resolution remain the key swing factor.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 61%
OpenAI 29%
Xiaomi 8.7%
Tencent 4.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
29%
Xiaomi
9%
Tencent
5%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Nvidia
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
2%
MiniMax
2%
2%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 29%
Xiaomi 8.7%
Tencent 4.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$1,092 Vol.
61%
OpenAI
$435 Vol.
29%
Xiaomi
$132 Vol.
9%
Tencent
$103 Vol.
5%
Meta
$130 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$83 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$149 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$135 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$149 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$134 Vol.
2%
$108 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$114 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$144 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$83 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$156 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$108 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$121 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$116 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$103 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$103 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases in mid-2026 that have posted leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench Coding and related agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified. These models demonstrate sustained advantages in long-context code generation, debugging, and tool-use tasks that align closely with LiveBench’s refreshed, contamination-free evaluation. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol, released in July, trails at 29% despite strong SWE-bench results, reflecting a narrower perceived edge on LiveBench’s specific task mix. Lower-odds contenders including Google, Meta, and open-weight labs trail due to fewer recent competitive updates. The next two months of potential model iterations before the October resolution remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$3,815Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases in mid-2026 that have posted leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench Coding and related agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified. These models demonstrate sustained advantages in long-context code generation, debugging, and tool-use tasks that align closely with LiveBench’s refreshed, contamination-free evaluation. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol, released in July, trails at 29% despite strong SWE-bench results, reflecting a narrower perceived edge on LiveBench’s specific task mix. Lower-odds contenders including Google, Meta, and open-weight labs trail due to fewer recent competitive updates. The next two months of potential model iterations before the October resolution remain the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,815Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability, driven by Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases in mid-2026 that have posted leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench Coding and related agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified. These models demonstrate sustained advantages in long-context code generation, debugging, and tool-use tasks that align closely with LiveBench’s refreshed, contamination-free evaluation. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol, released in July, trails at 29% despite strong SWE-bench results, reflecting a narrower perceived edge on LiveBench’s specific task mix. Lower-odds contenders including Google, Meta, and open-weight labs trail due to fewer recent competitive updates. The next two months of potential model iterations before the October resolution remain the key swing factor.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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