OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting its recent o3-mini and GPT-5 series releases that demonstrate strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks. The tight clustering around 45-50% for Anthropic, several unnamed competitors, and lower odds for Google, Z.ai, Moonshot, and others highlights intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where frontier large language models differentiate through specialized training on competition problems and proof-based challenges. Recent leaderboard snapshots show OpenAI models leading overall LiveBench averages, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai post competitive math-specific results on proxies such as AIME and FrontierMath. Key upcoming catalysts include any September or October model updates that could alter category scores before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuelle entreprise a le meilleur modèle d'IA sur LiveBench (Mathématiques) fin octobre ?
Quelle entreprise a le meilleur modèle d'IA sur LiveBench (Mathématiques) fin octobre ?
OpenAI 55%
Anthropic 46%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$11,647 Vol.
$11,647 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
55%
Anthropic
46%
Z.ai
1%
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
OpenAI 55%
Anthropic 46%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$11,647 Vol.
$11,647 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
OpenAI
$1,583 Vol.
55%
Anthropic
$1,965 Vol.
46%
Z.ai
$735 Vol.
1%
$484 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$479 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$476 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$461 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$477 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$436 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$441 Vol.
1%
Meta
$447 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$436 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$456 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$352 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$390 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$283 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting its recent o3-mini and GPT-5 series releases that demonstrate strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks. The tight clustering around 45-50% for Anthropic, several unnamed competitors, and lower odds for Google, Z.ai, Moonshot, and others highlights intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where frontier large language models differentiate through specialized training on competition problems and proof-based challenges. Recent leaderboard snapshots show OpenAI models leading overall LiveBench averages, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai post competitive math-specific results on proxies such as AIME and FrontierMath. Key upcoming catalysts include any September or October model updates that could alter category scores before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$11,647Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting its recent o3-mini and GPT-5 series releases that demonstrate strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks. The tight clustering around 45-50% for Anthropic, several unnamed competitors, and lower odds for Google, Z.ai, Moonshot, and others highlights intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where frontier large language models differentiate through specialized training on competition problems and proof-based challenges. Recent leaderboard snapshots show OpenAI models leading overall LiveBench averages, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai post competitive math-specific results on proxies such as AIME and FrontierMath. Key upcoming catalysts include any September or October model updates that could alter category scores before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$11,647Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end of October 2026, reflecting its recent o3-mini and GPT-5 series releases that demonstrate strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks. The tight clustering around 45-50% for Anthropic, several unnamed competitors, and lower odds for Google, Z.ai, Moonshot, and others highlights intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where frontier large language models differentiate through specialized training on competition problems and proof-based challenges. Recent leaderboard snapshots show OpenAI models leading overall LiveBench averages, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai post competitive math-specific results on proxies such as AIME and FrontierMath. Key upcoming catalysts include any September or October model updates that could alter category scores before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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