**Iranian officials and hardline lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes, reinstated sanctions pressure, and IAEA access disputes, with a formal bill introduced in parliament in March 2026 that would also repeal JCPOA-related laws.** Parliament has not convened for in-person sessions during the conflict, and the legislation requires Guardian Council approval before any executive action. NPT withdrawal itself mandates three months’ advance notice under Article X. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, reducing immediate escalation incentives. No parliamentary vote or formal notice has occurred as of mid-August 2026, consistent with Iran’s past pattern of using withdrawal rhetoric as diplomatic leverage rather than executing it. These procedural, institutional, and diplomatic barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against withdrawal before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Oui
10% chance
$334,387 Vol.
$334,387 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
$334,387 Vol.
$334,387 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Iranian officials and hardline lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes, reinstated sanctions pressure, and IAEA access disputes, with a formal bill introduced in parliament in March 2026 that would also repeal JCPOA-related laws.**
Parliament has not convened for in-person sessions during the conflict, and the legislation requires Guardian Council approval before any executive action. NPT withdrawal itself mandates three months’ advance notice under Article X. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, reducing immediate escalation incentives.
No parliamentary vote or formal notice has occurred as of mid-August 2026, consistent with Iran’s past pattern of using withdrawal rhetoric as diplomatic leverage rather than executing it. These procedural, institutional, and diplomatic barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against withdrawal before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$334,387Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Iranian officials and hardline lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes, reinstated sanctions pressure, and IAEA access disputes, with a formal bill introduced in parliament in March 2026 that would also repeal JCPOA-related laws.**
Parliament has not convened for in-person sessions during the conflict, and the legislation requires Guardian Council approval before any executive action. NPT withdrawal itself mandates three months’ advance notice under Article X. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, reducing immediate escalation incentives.
No parliamentary vote or formal notice has occurred as of mid-August 2026, consistent with Iran’s past pattern of using withdrawal rhetoric as diplomatic leverage rather than executing it. These procedural, institutional, and diplomatic barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against withdrawal before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$334,387Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iranian officials and hardline lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes, reinstated sanctions pressure, and IAEA access disputes, with a formal bill introduced in parliament in March 2026 that would also repeal JCPOA-related laws.** Parliament has not convened for in-person sessions during the conflict, and the legislation requires Guardian Council approval before any executive action. NPT withdrawal itself mandates three months’ advance notice under Article X. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, reducing immediate escalation incentives. No parliamentary vote or formal notice has occurred as of mid-August 2026, consistent with Iran’s past pattern of using withdrawal rhetoric as diplomatic leverage rather than executing it. These procedural, institutional, and diplomatic barriers underpin the market’s strong consensus against withdrawal before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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