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icon for La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Carte De L'Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?

icon for La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?
Géopolitique·Carte De L'Ukraine

La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ?

$77,934 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$77,934 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre

$35,697 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to secure the broader region, with small settlements like Serhiivka positioned along axes toward key hubs such as Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration. Recent reporting indicates Russian units captured Serhiivka in August 2024 amid a wider offensive that later took Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by early 2026, though further westward momentum has slowed. Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions in remaining sectors of the “Fortress Belt,” employing drones, artillery, and infantry to contest approaches, while Russian operations rely on reinforced assault groups and sustained fire support. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of these ground operations, potential for additional Russian gains in the coming months, and any Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in command priorities ahead of seasonal or operational deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png

Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png

Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$77,934
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to secure the broader region, with small settlements like Serhiivka positioned along axes toward key hubs such as Pokrovsk and the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration. Recent reporting indicates Russian units captured Serhiivka in August 2024 amid a wider offensive that later took Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by early 2026, though further westward momentum has slowed. Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions in remaining sectors of the “Fortress Belt,” employing drones, artillery, and infantry to contest approaches, while Russian operations rely on reinforced assault groups and sustained fire support. Trader sentiment reflects the pace of these ground operations, potential for additional Russian gains in the coming months, and any Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in command priorities ahead of seasonal or operational deadlines.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png

Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png

Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$77,934
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.10.14.png Intersection Location in Serhiivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.11.04.png Serhiivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Screenshot+2026-03-23+at+11.12.00.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/etpggF6322brzyaB6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Questions fréquentes

« La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 14%, suivi de « 30 avril » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » a généré $77.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 avril » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La Russie va-t-elle capturer Serhiivka d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.