Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15, 2026, clearing Russian infiltration groups from roughly 75 square kilometers in northern Donetsk Oblast and liberating an additional 10 square kilometers, including settlements such as Serednie near the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and drone strikes around Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka as part of broader efforts to approach the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, though independent assessments indicate these remain limited and contested rather than consolidated advances. Ukrainian logistics interdiction and counter-infiltration operations have disrupted Russian positioning in the immediate vicinity. Trader assessments of near-term Russian entry will hinge on whether Moscow can sustain pressure amid Ukrainian defensive reinforcements and any shifts in the tempo of assaults toward Kostiantynivka.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Russie reviendra-t-elle à Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka d'ici... ?
La Russie reviendra-t-elle à Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka d'ici... ?
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
43%
31 octobre
68%
31 décembre
90%
$4,920 Vol.
30 septembre
$3,594 Vol.
43%
31 octobre
$868 Vol.
68%
31 décembre
$458 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15, 2026, clearing Russian infiltration groups from roughly 75 square kilometers in northern Donetsk Oblast and liberating an additional 10 square kilometers, including settlements such as Serednie near the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and drone strikes around Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka as part of broader efforts to approach the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, though independent assessments indicate these remain limited and contested rather than consolidated advances. Ukrainian logistics interdiction and counter-infiltration operations have disrupted Russian positioning in the immediate vicinity. Trader assessments of near-term Russian entry will hinge on whether Moscow can sustain pressure amid Ukrainian defensive reinforcements and any shifts in the tempo of assaults toward Kostiantynivka.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ET
Volume
$4,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15, 2026, clearing Russian infiltration groups from roughly 75 square kilometers in northern Donetsk Oblast and liberating an additional 10 square kilometers, including settlements such as Serednie near the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and drone strikes around Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka as part of broader efforts to approach the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, though independent assessments indicate these remain limited and contested rather than consolidated advances. Ukrainian logistics interdiction and counter-infiltration operations have disrupted Russian positioning in the immediate vicinity. Trader assessments of near-term Russian entry will hinge on whether Moscow can sustain pressure amid Ukrainian defensive reinforcements and any shifts in the tempo of assaults toward Kostiantynivka.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$4,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15, 2026, clearing Russian infiltration groups from roughly 75 square kilometers in northern Donetsk Oblast and liberating an additional 10 square kilometers, including settlements such as Serednie near the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka axis. Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and drone strikes around Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka as part of broader efforts to approach the fortress belt cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, though independent assessments indicate these remain limited and contested rather than consolidated advances. Ukrainian logistics interdiction and counter-infiltration operations have disrupted Russian positioning in the immediate vicinity. Trader assessments of near-term Russian entry will hinge on whether Moscow can sustain pressure amid Ukrainian defensive reinforcements and any shifts in the tempo of assaults toward Kostiantynivka.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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