Trader consensus assigns a 67% implied probability to impeachment before the term ends, reflecting House control, partisan incentives, and the procedural threshold of a simple majority vote on articles of impeachment. With divided government dynamics and ongoing oversight of executive actions, investigations into policy implementation and agency decisions have sustained pressure on congressional calendars. The two-thirds Senate conviction requirement continues to shape expectations, as historical patterns show most impeachment efforts stall short of removal. Scheduled legislative sessions and potential shifts from the 2026 midterms remain key variables that could accelerate or deter formal proceedings within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTrump sera-t-il destitué avant la fin de son mandat ?
Oui
$94,126 Vol.
$94,126 Vol.
Oui
$94,126 Vol.
$94,126 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 67% implied probability to impeachment before the term ends, reflecting House control, partisan incentives, and the procedural threshold of a simple majority vote on articles of impeachment. With divided government dynamics and ongoing oversight of executive actions, investigations into policy implementation and agency decisions have sustained pressure on congressional calendars. The two-thirds Senate conviction requirement continues to shape expectations, as historical patterns show most impeachment efforts stall short of removal. Scheduled legislative sessions and potential shifts from the 2026 midterms remain key variables that could accelerate or deter formal proceedings within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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