Trump’s refusal to actively pursue clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with broad institutional resistance, underpins the 94% trader consensus against a pardon by year-end. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 federal court rejection of her latest petition, leaving executive action as her primary remaining avenue. Senate Republicans and Democrats unanimously approved a non-binding resolution in July 2026 opposing any pardon or commutation. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former counsel, publicly committed not to recommend clemency. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter in detail and would consult the Justice Department if approached, while Maxwell’s attorney has described any grant as unlikely before the end of the term due to political costs. No formal application has been submitted.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$747,999 Vol.
$747,999 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
6% chance
$747,999 Vol.
$747,999 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s refusal to actively pursue clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with broad institutional resistance, underpins the 94% trader consensus against a pardon by year-end. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 federal court rejection of her latest petition, leaving executive action as her primary remaining avenue. Senate Republicans and Democrats unanimously approved a non-binding resolution in July 2026 opposing any pardon or commutation. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former counsel, publicly committed not to recommend clemency. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter in detail and would consult the Justice Department if approached, while Maxwell’s attorney has described any grant as unlikely before the end of the term due to political costs. No formal application has been submitted.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$747,999Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s refusal to actively pursue clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with broad institutional resistance, underpins the 94% trader consensus against a pardon by year-end. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 federal court rejection of her latest petition, leaving executive action as her primary remaining avenue. Senate Republicans and Democrats unanimously approved a non-binding resolution in July 2026 opposing any pardon or commutation. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former counsel, publicly committed not to recommend clemency. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter in detail and would consult the Justice Department if approached, while Maxwell’s attorney has described any grant as unlikely before the end of the term due to political costs. No formal application has been submitted.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$747,999Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...Trump’s refusal to actively pursue clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with broad institutional resistance, underpins the 94% trader consensus against a pardon by year-end. Maxwell’s appeals have been exhausted following an August 2026 federal court rejection of her latest petition, leaving executive action as her primary remaining avenue. Senate Republicans and Democrats unanimously approved a non-binding resolution in July 2026 opposing any pardon or commutation. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former counsel, publicly committed not to recommend clemency. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered the matter in detail and would consult the Justice Department if approached, while Maxwell’s attorney has described any grant as unlikely before the end of the term due to political costs. No formal application has been submitted.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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