Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against Xi Jinping leaving office before 2027, reflecting his consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party, military, and security apparatus following constitutional changes that removed term limits. Recent central committee meetings and personnel selections have further aligned key institutions behind continued leadership stability, with no verifiable signs of elite challenges or health-related transitions emerging in the past year. This consensus aligns with historical patterns of long tenures once power is centralized. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden health events, internal factional disputes, or major external policy reversals, though none have materialized to alter current positioning.