The near-certain trader consensus on Zohran Mamdani retaining U.S. citizenship through 2026 stems from the narrow statutory grounds for denaturalization, which require documented evidence of fraud during the naturalization process or conviction for certain serious offenses. No such proceedings, investigations, or public allegations have surfaced against the New York assembly member, whose status has remained stable since his family's immigration from Uganda. Historical data shows revocation actions occur in only a tiny fraction of cases annually and typically involve national-security or terrorism-related matters absent here. While a sudden policy shift in enforcement priorities or newly disclosed information from federal agencies could theoretically alter the trajectory before the 2027 cutoff, such developments lack any current indicators and would still face lengthy judicial review.