**Traders assign a 93.2% probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because of the low global frequency of such megathrust events.** Only a handful have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1), and 1952 Kamchatka (9.0)—yielding an estimated long-term rate of roughly 1–3 per century according to USGS catalogs and recurrence modeling. No M9+ events have struck since 2011, and 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, consistent with typical intervals of centuries for individual subduction zones. This rarity, combined with the short remaining window, underpins the strong market consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-length rupture along high-strain segments such as Cascadia or southern Chile, or temporal clustering not captured in short observational records, though official monitoring shows no immediate precursors that would materially shift the low implied odds.