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icon for 9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?

9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?

icon for 9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?

9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?

हाँ

7% संभावना
Polymarket

$273,585 वॉल्यूम

हाँ

7% संभावना
Polymarket

$273,585 वॉल्यूम

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Traders assign a 93.2% probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because of the low global frequency of such megathrust events.** Only a handful have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1), and 1952 Kamchatka (9.0)—yielding an estimated long-term rate of roughly 1–3 per century according to USGS catalogs and recurrence modeling. No M9+ events have struck since 2011, and 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, consistent with typical intervals of centuries for individual subduction zones. This rarity, combined with the short remaining window, underpins the strong market consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-length rupture along high-strain segments such as Cascadia or southern Chile, or temporal clustering not captured in short observational records, though official monitoring shows no immediate precursors that would materially shift the low implied odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$273,585
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Traders assign a 93.2% probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because of the low global frequency of such megathrust events.** Only a handful have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1), and 1952 Kamchatka (9.0)—yielding an estimated long-term rate of roughly 1–3 per century according to USGS catalogs and recurrence modeling. No M9+ events have struck since 2011, and 2026 activity has remained below 8.0, consistent with typical intervals of centuries for individual subduction zones. This rarity, combined with the short remaining window, underpins the strong market consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpected full-length rupture along high-strain segments such as Cascadia or southern Chile, or temporal clustering not captured in short observational records, though official monitoring shows no immediate precursors that would materially shift the low implied odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$273,585
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।

अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?" Polymarket पर 2 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, 2027 से पहले 9.0 या उससे अधिक तीव्रता का भूकंप? 7% (7¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है।

आज तक, "9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?" ने कुल $273.6K ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Dec 8, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

"9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 2 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

यह एक खुला बाज़ार है। "9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?" के लिए वर्तमान अग्रणी "2027 से पहले 9.0 या उससे अधिक तीव्रता का भूकंप?" केवल 7% पर है। किसी भी परिणाम के पास मज़बूत बहुमत नहीं होने से, ट्रेडर इसे अत्यधिक अनिश्चित मानते हैं।

"9.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।