Rep. Andy Biggs holds a commanding lead in the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary, reflected in trader consensus pricing him at 95% implied probability to win on July 21, driven by a recent Kreate Strategies poll showing him at 61% to Rep. David Schweikert's 23%. Biggs' position stems from superior fundraising—nearly $3 million raised with over $1 million cash on hand as of mid-April—record nomination signatures submitted in March, and key endorsements from former President Trump and Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk, following Karrin Taylor Robson's February campaign suspension that consolidated support. Schweikert lags with minimal cash reserves and weaker polling. While dominant, late-breaking scandals, a Schweikert endorsement surge, or shifts among remaining undecided voters could challenge the outcome ahead of the primary.