The Bank of Israel's July 6 decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%—the second consecutive easing move—has shaped trader expectations for the September 1 announcement. Inflation has remained subdued at 1.5% year-over-year in July, comfortably inside the 1–3% target range, while the shekel has shown strength and economic indicators point to a post-conflict recovery with upgraded growth forecasts. The Monetary Committee has emphasized a gradual approach to policy adjustments amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties. These conditions underpin the 72.5% implied probability of no change, with the 27% chance of a further reduction reflecting the slim possibility of softer incoming data supporting another step. Near-zero odds of an increase align with contained price pressures and the central bank's forward guidance on a lower rate path over the medium term.