**Traders assign a 68.5% probability that California Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, will fail on the November 3 ballot.** Recent polling has shown support fluctuating between roughly 41% and 57% yes, with several surveys indicating a narrowing or reversed lead as opposition messaging intensifies. Key factors include anticipated heavy spending by affected billionaires and business groups against the measure, plus competing propositions (such as those limiting new personal-property taxes) that could conflict with or supersede it if they receive more affirmative votes. Additional headwinds cited in analyses encompass expected legal challenges to the tax’s constitutionality, concerns over long-term revenue effects from high-net-worth migration, and opposition from certain labor organizations and business roundtables. These elements have shaped trader consensus that the measure faces significant barriers to passage despite early qualification with nearly one million valid signatures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
32% संभावना
$3,623,764 वॉल्यूम
$3,623,764 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
हाँ
32% संभावना
$3,623,764 वॉल्यूम
$3,623,764 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 68.5% probability that California Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, will fail on the November 3 ballot.** Recent polling has shown support fluctuating between roughly 41% and 57% yes, with several surveys indicating a narrowing or reversed lead as opposition messaging intensifies. Key factors include anticipated heavy spending by affected billionaires and business groups against the measure, plus competing propositions (such as those limiting new personal-property taxes) that could conflict with or supersede it if they receive more affirmative votes. Additional headwinds cited in analyses encompass expected legal challenges to the tax’s constitutionality, concerns over long-term revenue effects from high-net-worth migration, and opposition from certain labor organizations and business roundtables. These elements have shaped trader consensus that the measure faces significant barriers to passage despite early qualification with nearly one million valid signatures.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,623,764समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 68.5% probability that California Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, will fail on the November 3 ballot.** Recent polling has shown support fluctuating between roughly 41% and 57% yes, with several surveys indicating a narrowing or reversed lead as opposition messaging intensifies. Key factors include anticipated heavy spending by affected billionaires and business groups against the measure, plus competing propositions (such as those limiting new personal-property taxes) that could conflict with or supersede it if they receive more affirmative votes. Additional headwinds cited in analyses encompass expected legal challenges to the tax’s constitutionality, concerns over long-term revenue effects from high-net-worth migration, and opposition from certain labor organizations and business roundtables. These elements have shaped trader consensus that the measure faces significant barriers to passage despite early qualification with nearly one million valid signatures.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$3,623,764समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 68.5% probability that California Proposition 40, the one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, will fail on the November 3 ballot.** Recent polling has shown support fluctuating between roughly 41% and 57% yes, with several surveys indicating a narrowing or reversed lead as opposition messaging intensifies. Key factors include anticipated heavy spending by affected billionaires and business groups against the measure, plus competing propositions (such as those limiting new personal-property taxes) that could conflict with or supersede it if they receive more affirmative votes. Additional headwinds cited in analyses encompass expected legal challenges to the tax’s constitutionality, concerns over long-term revenue effects from high-net-worth migration, and opposition from certain labor organizations and business roundtables. These elements have shaped trader consensus that the measure faces significant barriers to passage despite early qualification with nearly one million valid signatures.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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