Elon Musk's posting pace through the first two-plus days of the three-day window has aligned closely with his typical non-event baseline of roughly 15-20 posts daily, keeping the three-day total firmly inside the 40-64 bracket that now carries virtually all market-implied probability. Traders have priced in continued steady but unspectacular activity around X product updates, Grok-related replies, and routine commentary rather than a sustained spike. An upset into higher brackets would require a sudden external catalyst—such as major political news, Tesla or SpaceX developments, or a viral controversy—that historically prompts Musk to exceed 25 posts per day over multiple sessions. With only hours remaining before the window closes, the absence of such triggers has solidified the current consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया40-64 100.0%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$672,128 वॉल्यूम
$672,128 वॉल्यूम
15 अग, 2026
40-64
100%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 100.0%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$672,128 वॉल्यूम
$672,128 वॉल्यूम
15 अग, 2026
40-64
$181,666 वॉल्यूम
100%
65-89
$131,382 वॉल्यूम
<1%
90-114
$157,204 वॉल्यूम
<1%
115-139
$67,368 वॉल्यूम
<1%
140-164
$29,963 वॉल्यूम
<1%
165-189
$22,072 वॉल्यूम
<1%
190-214
$5,952 वॉल्यूम
<1%
215-239
$4,949 वॉल्यूम
<1%
240+
$4,257 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting pace through the first two-plus days of the three-day window has aligned closely with his typical non-event baseline of roughly 15-20 posts daily, keeping the three-day total firmly inside the 40-64 bracket that now carries virtually all market-implied probability. Traders have priced in continued steady but unspectacular activity around X product updates, Grok-related replies, and routine commentary rather than a sustained spike. An upset into higher brackets would require a sudden external catalyst—such as major political news, Tesla or SpaceX developments, or a viral controversy—that historically prompts Musk to exceed 25 posts per day over multiple sessions. With only hours remaining before the window closes, the absence of such triggers has solidified the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$672,128समाप्ति तिथि
15 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's posting pace through the first two-plus days of the three-day window has aligned closely with his typical non-event baseline of roughly 15-20 posts daily, keeping the three-day total firmly inside the 40-64 bracket that now carries virtually all market-implied probability. Traders have priced in continued steady but unspectacular activity around X product updates, Grok-related replies, and routine commentary rather than a sustained spike. An upset into higher brackets would require a sudden external catalyst—such as major political news, Tesla or SpaceX developments, or a viral controversy—that historically prompts Musk to exceed 25 posts per day over multiple sessions. With only hours remaining before the window closes, the absence of such triggers has solidified the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$672,128समाप्ति तिथि
15 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's posting pace through the first two-plus days of the three-day window has aligned closely with his typical non-event baseline of roughly 15-20 posts daily, keeping the three-day total firmly inside the 40-64 bracket that now carries virtually all market-implied probability. Traders have priced in continued steady but unspectacular activity around X product updates, Grok-related replies, and routine commentary rather than a sustained spike. An upset into higher brackets would require a sudden external catalyst—such as major political news, Tesla or SpaceX developments, or a viral controversy—that historically prompts Musk to exceed 25 posts per day over multiple sessions. With only hours remaining before the window closes, the absence of such triggers has solidified the current consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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