A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for his child trafficking trial in Tarija, suspending proceedings and freezing his assets amid charges of impregnating a minor during his presidency. Morales remains in hiding within his Chapare coca-growing stronghold, protected by loyalists from the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) faction who have vowed nationwide blockades and insurgency against any capture attempt. With MAS internally divided between Morales and President Luis Arce supporters, and no reported police incursions despite the warrant, trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against arrest by May 31, reflecting logistical and political barriers in the remaining two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाइवो मोरालेस को 31 मई तक गिरफ्तार कर लिया गया
इवो मोरालेस को 31 मई तक गिरफ्तार कर लिया गया
$11,072 वॉल्यूम
$11,072 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
$11,072 वॉल्यूम
$11,072 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for his child trafficking trial in Tarija, suspending proceedings and freezing his assets amid charges of impregnating a minor during his presidency. Morales remains in hiding within his Chapare coca-growing stronghold, protected by loyalists from the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) faction who have vowed nationwide blockades and insurgency against any capture attempt. With MAS internally divided between Morales and President Luis Arce supporters, and no reported police incursions despite the warrant, trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against arrest by May 31, reflecting logistical and political barriers in the remaining two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,072समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for his child trafficking trial in Tarija, suspending proceedings and freezing his assets amid charges of impregnating a minor during his presidency. Morales remains in hiding within his Chapare coca-growing stronghold, protected by loyalists from the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) faction who have vowed nationwide blockades and insurgency against any capture attempt. With MAS internally divided between Morales and President Luis Arce supporters, and no reported police incursions despite the warrant, trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against arrest by May 31, reflecting logistical and political barriers in the remaining two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$11,072समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for his child trafficking trial in Tarija, suspending proceedings and freezing his assets amid charges of impregnating a minor during his presidency. Morales remains in hiding within his Chapare coca-growing stronghold, protected by loyalists from the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) faction who have vowed nationwide blockades and insurgency against any capture attempt. With MAS internally divided between Morales and President Luis Arce supporters, and no reported police incursions despite the warrant, trader consensus prices a 70% implied probability against arrest by May 31, reflecting logistical and political barriers in the remaining two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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