**The primary driver of trader positioning on whether E. Jean Carroll faces federal charges is the May 2026 Justice Department inquiry into possible perjury tied to her civil lawsuits against President Trump.** Reports indicated the probe, referred to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Illinois, examined Carroll’s 2022 deposition statements about outside funding for her litigation, which later court filings showed came partly from a nonprofit linked to Reid Hoffman. Subsequent statements from the Chicago U.S. Attorney denied any investigation had been opened into Carroll herself, clarifying the focus on the nonprofit and related funding issues, with possible angles including money laundering or obstruction rather than direct perjury charges against her. No indictment has been announced through September 2026. Civil verdicts in Carroll’s favor were upheld on appeal, including Supreme Court action in June 2026, while Trump administration efforts to substitute the federal government as defendant or invoke immunity remain pending in related appeals. These factors, combined with the absence of formal charges despite the initial reports, shape the current implied probabilities reflected in market pricing. Upcoming resolution hinges on any new DOJ actions or court developments within specified date windows.