Recent polls, including an Alaska Survey Research survey from early August showing Mary Peltola at 51% and Dan Sullivan at 49%, have kept the 2026 Alaska Senate race a toss-up ahead of the August 18 top-four primary. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan seeks a third term while former U.S. Representative Peltola mounts a Democratic challenge in a state that uses ranked-choice voting in the general election. Peltola's advantages in fundraising and endorsements from labor and Native communities offset Sullivan's incumbency and name recognition, with a same-name Republican primary entrant adding potential ballot confusion. Trader sentiment reflects these balanced dynamics, where primary results, turnout among key voting blocs, and any final polling shifts could separate the frontrunners before the November general.