Cheng Chao-fang, the DPP nominee and Zhubei mayor, leads trader pricing at 67% for the November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate election, ahead of KMT nominee Hsu Hsin-ying at 32.5% and minor candidates near zero. Recent polls remain split, with some showing Hsu ahead by 6-7 points and others giving Cheng a similar edge, yet market consensus favors Cheng due to his established local governance record in the county's population center, DPP organizational support, and ability to draw cross-party voters. Hsu benefits from broader geographic strength outside Zhubei and KMT base consolidation after her primary win, though internal party tensions and limited opposition coordination have weighed on her positioning. The race stays competitive with undecided voters and turnout as key variables before election day.