Chiang Wan-an holds a clear lead in the Taipei mayoral market at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Puma Shen at 33.9%, with Kuo Hsi and minor candidates near zero. Traders continue to price in the KMT incumbent’s structural advantages in a traditionally pan-Blue city, including name recognition, established local networks, and a record on transport safety and urban renewal. The race has tightened sharply in the final weeks before the November 28 vote, with recent Taiwan Brain Trust and other polls showing Shen edging ahead or statistically tied after earlier double-digit deficits. Policy forums and large-scale campaign events have highlighted differences on housing, public transit, and resident participation, yet the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing still assigns Chiang the higher probability of victory on election night.