The incumbent National Party, leading a centre-right coalition with ACT and New Zealand First, secured a narrow preliminary majority of 67 seats in the expanded 131-seat Parliament following the November 7 election. This outcome stems from stronger performance in electorate seats despite Labour edging the party vote, combined with overhang effects and smaller parties like Opportunity entering Parliament for the first time. Special votes, due by November 27 and historically left-leaning, represent the main remaining variable but appear insufficient to overturn the bloc arithmetic under current counts. Trader consensus at 99.2% for National reflects this seat distribution and the low probability of a reversal, though further shifts in final tallies or unexpected coalition realignments could still alter the result.