Recent polling for New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election shows the National-led coalition and Labour-led opposition running nearly even in party vote, producing seat projections that often hinge on minor-party thresholds and coalition negotiations under the mixed-member proportional system. Cost-of-living pressures remain the dominant voter concern, while recent internal leadership tensions within National have kept attention on government stability. Minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, Te Pāti Māori, and the emerging Opportunity Party continue to poll near or above the 5 percent threshold, creating multiple viable paths to a majority for either major bloc. These dynamics sustain trader consensus on a narrow contest, with any sustained shift in economic sentiment, coalition polling, or late-campaign events likely to widen the gap ahead of election day.