The November 7, 2026, election produced preliminary results giving the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition 67 seats in the expanded 131-seat Parliament, one above the majority threshold, driven by National’s 42 electorate seats and resulting overhang despite Labour’s narrow 0.15-point party-vote lead. Special votes, representing roughly 14% of the total and historically favoring left-leaning parties, remain uncounted ahead of official results on November 27. This seat math under the MMP system underpins trader consensus that National will lead the next government. Shifts sufficient to alter the outcome would require unusually large swings in remaining ballots toward Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, or Opportunity that push a left-leaning bloc past 66 seats.