Recent polling shows New Zealand's National and Labour parties nearly tied in first-preference support ahead of the November 7 election, with both at 28% in the latest 1News-Verian survey and similar figures in polling averages. This closeness, combined with the mixed-member proportional system that allocates seats based on party vote shares, keeps the contest for second place tight as projected seat totals for the two major parties remain comparable. Gains for the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Opportunities Party have further fragmented support, reducing the share available to National and Labour while raising the prospect of overhang seats or coalition dynamics that could influence final rankings. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing captures this uncertainty, with scheduled campaign events and any late shifts in undecided voters likely to determine separation before election night.