**Louisiana’s 5th congressional district holds a November 3, 2026 jungle primary in which every candidate appears on a single ballot and an outright win requires more than 50 percent of the vote.** The seat is open following redistricting changes after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which prompted new district boundaries and shifted several Republican contenders into the race. At least seven Republicans—including state Sen. Stewart Cathey Jr., state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, and others—plus Democrat Dan McKay have qualified, producing a crowded field that fragments support. No public polling shows any candidate approaching a majority, consistent with historical patterns in Louisiana’s multi-candidate congressional contests where vote-splitting typically forces a December runoff. These structural factors underpin the strong trader consensus against an outright first-round victory.