Recent polling averages place National at around 29-30% party vote, projecting 33-39 seats under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the 7 November election, with Labour nearly tied and minor parties fragmenting the vote. National’s support has slipped below 30% in multiple surveys, offset partly by gains for ACT and NZ First, while The Opportunities Party hovers near or above the 5% threshold and could draw seats that National has explicitly ruled out partnering with. Fluctuations across recent polls from Curia, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, and others reflect uncertainty over turnout, electorate seat holds, and coalition arithmetic needed to reach 62 seats. Further shifts in minor-party support or late campaign events could narrow or widen National’s projected range.