Trump’s scheduled participation in the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19 anchors trader consensus around a November 19 departure at 92.5 percent implied probability. Recent statements from the president and U.S. officials confirm travel plans for the event, which features expected bilateral discussions with Chinese counterparts on trade, tariffs, and regional security. The compact two-day program leaves little room for extensions under standard diplomatic scheduling. Lower-probability alternatives, including November 20 or later, would require unplanned additional meetings or logistical adjustments, while earlier exits remain inconsistent with the announced itinerary and historical patterns for similar summits. Market resolution hinges on the precise China Standard Time date Trump exits Chinese territory.