Trader consensus pricing "No" at 91.5% reflects China's sustained emphasis on coercive military signaling and diplomatic messaging rather than preparations for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Recent unannounced November 2026 drills involving over 100 vessels, including the Liaoning carrier group conducting area-denial operations in the western Pacific, simulate isolating Taiwan and deterring external intervention but align with ongoing normalization of presence rather than imminent assault. President Xi Jinping's November 12 speech reiterated peaceful reunification under the one-country, two-systems framework without referencing force. These developments, alongside U.S. assessments noting persistent logistical and readiness gaps, support the view that Beijing continues prioritizing pressure tactics ahead of events such as the APEC summit over crossing into direct conflict.