Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization or amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing gray-zone tactics like naval patrols. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks commitment to a near-term Taiwan operation, compounded by Beijing's economic headwinds and domestic military purges under Xi Jinping. Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in extra defense spending on May 8 for U.S. missiles, bolstering deterrence, while President Lai Ching-te thanked Washington on May 12 for arms support. Realistic shifts could stem from Taiwan independence declarations, South China Sea escalations, or abrupt U.S. policy changes post-Trump-Xi diplomacy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$461,403 वॉल्यूम
$461,403 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
हाँ
$461,403 वॉल्यूम
$461,403 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization or amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing gray-zone tactics like naval patrols. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks commitment to a near-term Taiwan operation, compounded by Beijing's economic headwinds and domestic military purges under Xi Jinping. Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in extra defense spending on May 8 for U.S. missiles, bolstering deterrence, while President Lai Ching-te thanked Washington on May 12 for arms support. Realistic shifts could stem from Taiwan independence declarations, South China Sea escalations, or abrupt U.S. policy changes post-Trump-Xi diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$461,403समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization or amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing gray-zone tactics like naval patrols. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks commitment to a near-term Taiwan operation, compounded by Beijing's economic headwinds and domestic military purges under Xi Jinping. Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in extra defense spending on May 8 for U.S. missiles, bolstering deterrence, while President Lai Ching-te thanked Washington on May 12 for arms support. Realistic shifts could stem from Taiwan independence declarations, South China Sea escalations, or abrupt U.S. policy changes post-Trump-Xi diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$461,403समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable People's Liberation Army mobilization or amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing gray-zone tactics like naval patrols. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks commitment to a near-term Taiwan operation, compounded by Beijing's economic headwinds and domestic military purges under Xi Jinping. Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in extra defense spending on May 8 for U.S. missiles, bolstering deterrence, while President Lai Ching-te thanked Washington on May 12 for arms support. Realistic shifts could stem from Taiwan independence declarations, South China Sea escalations, or abrupt U.S. policy changes post-Trump-Xi diplomacy.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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