Russia’s military remains heavily committed to its grinding campaign in Ukraine, where recent assessments from May 2026 show slowed territorial gains, net losses in some sectors, and sustained high casualties that constrain capacity for a new conventional operation elsewhere. Kremlin demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas as a negotiation precondition, combined with ongoing ceasefire violations and force rotations, keep resources focused on that theater. A recently approved law authorizing troop deployments to protect Russian citizens abroad has drawn attention as a potential legal framework, yet analysts view it primarily as enabling hybrid measures rather than signaling an imminent full-scale invasion by year-end. NATO reinforcement signals and sanctions pressure further elevate the costs of any expansion, leaving traders with an 87.5% implied probability that no additional country will face Russian invasion in 2026.