Russia's ongoing commitment of forces and resources to the Ukraine conflict remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus against a new invasion in 2026. With Russian units sustaining elevated casualties and achieving only incremental advances on existing fronts through mid-August, capacity for a second conventional operation appears constrained. US intelligence assessments and European analyses flag risks of limited hybrid actions or small-scale probes against NATO neighbors such as the Baltic states, yet these scenarios involve high escalation risks under Article 5 and lack confirmed large-scale troop movements or logistical preparations. The absence of verified cross-border activity since the start of the year, combined with Russia's focus on sustaining its current campaign, sustains the elevated probability assigned to no new invasion. Late-year shifts in battlefield dynamics or political calculations could still introduce limited volatility.