Ongoing indirect diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran, including mediated talks at the UN General Assembly in late September, has centered on proposals to lift blockades, unfreeze assets, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for nuclear concessions and an end to hostilities. President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day offer while signaling openness to further negotiations after the November midterms, with both sides citing military options yet prioritizing de-escalation. Recent U.S. troop deployments and carrier movements reflect posturing amid the existing conflict that began earlier in 2026, but no verified plans for a full-scale ground invasion have emerged. Traders view the combination of stalled but active mediation, economic pressures on Iran, and high costs of escalation as sustaining the strong consensus against an invasion by the end of 2026.