Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on the 2026 conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, followed by a spring ceasefire, renewed exchanges over Strait of Hormuz shipping incidents in July, and ongoing diplomatic negotiations toward a broader peace framework. President Trump has emphasized limited objectives, de-escalation signals, and avoidance of prolonged engagement, while Pentagon assessments highlight significant logistical and political barriers to large-scale ground operations. Traders price an 82.5% probability of no U.S. invasion before 2027, reflecting the pattern of airstrikes, sanctions, and naval measures rather than full-scale troop commitments, alongside active talks mediated through third parties and the high costs of escalation observed in comparable historical cases.