US-mediated trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 marked the first direct negotiations in nine months, producing agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange and limited progress on postwar security guarantees while confirming persistent gaps on territory. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from annexed eastern regions including Donetsk, which Ukraine rejects as a precondition for any ceasefire. Follow-up meetings saw US envoys brief President Putin, who proposed a localized humanitarian pause in Kostyantynivka and signaled continued dialogue, with plans for European participation in future rounds. Ukrainian officials noted momentum toward a possible deal by year-end or before 2027, though both sides remain far apart on core issues of borders and security architecture. These developments have shaped trader views on the likelihood and timing of any formal ceasefire agreement.