U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 2026 mediation produced a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-prisoner swap running May 9–11, yet both sides quickly traded accusations of violations while Russia’s Victory Day events concluded. Kremlin statements immediately afterward described a durable agreement as still “a very long way off,” with Moscow conditioning any broader talks on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated negotiations have advanced limited monitoring mechanisms but remain stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and referendum requirements on any settlement. These developments have kept trader consensus on a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low implied probabilities, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of major de-escalation signals in recent weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयारूस x यूक्रेन द्वारा संघर्ष विराम समझौता...?
रूस x यूक्रेन द्वारा संघर्ष विराम समझौता...?
$569,805 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
31 मई
3%
30 जून
12%
31 अक्टूबर
37%
31 दिसंबर
49%
$569,805 वॉल्यूम
31 मई
$238,702 वॉल्यूम
3%
30 जून
$190,515 वॉल्यूम
12%
31 अक्टूबर
$48,385 वॉल्यूम
37%
31 दिसंबर
$92,474 वॉल्यूम
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 2026 mediation produced a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-prisoner swap running May 9–11, yet both sides quickly traded accusations of violations while Russia’s Victory Day events concluded. Kremlin statements immediately afterward described a durable agreement as still “a very long way off,” with Moscow conditioning any broader talks on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated negotiations have advanced limited monitoring mechanisms but remain stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and referendum requirements on any settlement. These developments have kept trader consensus on a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low implied probabilities, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of major de-escalation signals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$569,805समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 2026 mediation produced a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-prisoner swap running May 9–11, yet both sides quickly traded accusations of violations while Russia’s Victory Day events concluded. Kremlin statements immediately afterward described a durable agreement as still “a very long way off,” with Moscow conditioning any broader talks on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated negotiations have advanced limited monitoring mechanisms but remain stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and referendum requirements on any settlement. These developments have kept trader consensus on a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low implied probabilities, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of major de-escalation signals in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$569,805समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 2026 mediation produced a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-prisoner swap running May 9–11, yet both sides quickly traded accusations of violations while Russia’s Victory Day events concluded. Kremlin statements immediately afterward described a durable agreement as still “a very long way off,” with Moscow conditioning any broader talks on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other claimed regions. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated negotiations have advanced limited monitoring mechanisms but remain stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and referendum requirements on any settlement. These developments have kept trader consensus on a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low implied probabilities, reflecting entrenched positions and the absence of major de-escalation signals in recent weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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