Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in mid-August 2026, underscore the absence of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. Core disputes over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full Donbas concessions, and Ukraine's requirements for security guarantees without ceding sovereignty remain unresolved following earlier 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner swaps. With the August 31 deadline approaching amid continued frontline advances and no scheduled high-level summit, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on terms historically rejected by both sides.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
1% संभावना
$260,211 वॉल्यूम
$260,211 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
हाँ
1% संभावना
$260,211 वॉल्यूम
$260,211 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in mid-August 2026, underscore the absence of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. Core disputes over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full Donbas concessions, and Ukraine's requirements for security guarantees without ceding sovereignty remain unresolved following earlier 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner swaps. With the August 31 deadline approaching amid continued frontline advances and no scheduled high-level summit, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on terms historically rejected by both sides.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$260,211समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in mid-August 2026, underscore the absence of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. Core disputes over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full Donbas concessions, and Ukraine's requirements for security guarantees without ceding sovereignty remain unresolved following earlier 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner swaps. With the August 31 deadline approaching amid continued frontline advances and no scheduled high-level summit, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on terms historically rejected by both sides.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$260,211समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military exchanges, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory and Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in mid-August 2026, underscore the absence of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. Core disputes over territorial control, particularly Russian demands for full Donbas concessions, and Ukraine's requirements for security guarantees without ceding sovereignty remain unresolved following earlier 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only prisoner swaps. With the August 31 deadline approaching amid continued frontline advances and no scheduled high-level summit, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A last-minute shift would require rapid alignment on terms historically rejected by both sides.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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